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With the 2026 college football season less than two months away, one of the sport’s most respected analysts has delivered a prediction that’s already turning heads across the country. Phil Steele, whose annual preseason magazine is widely followed by coaches and fans alike, believes several teams outside the expected favorites have what it takes to crash the College Football Playoff race and Iowa is right in the middle of that conversation.
Steele’s annual list of “surprise” College Football Playoff contenders focuses on programs expected to begin the season outside the AP Preseason Top 10 but still capable of earning a Playoff berth and even competing for a national championship. Among the 12 teams he highlighted, the Iowa Hawkeyes landed at No. 9, giving Kirk Ferentz’s program another reason to believe a memorable season could be on the horizon.
The prediction immediately grabbed attention because Iowa wasn’t included among Steele’s top five surprise picks. Instead, the Hawkeyes quietly appeared in the second half of the rankings alongside respected programs such as Clemson, Tennessee and TCU. That placement suggests Steele believes Iowa has the talent, coaching stability and schedule to emerge as one of the season’s biggest surprises.
Steele’s rankings are based on his extensive preseason evaluation of every major college football program. Since the official AP Preseason Top 25 has not yet been released, his projections rely on returning production, roster talent, coaching continuity, recruiting strength and schedule difficulty.
Leading Steele’s list is Alabama, a program he predicts could begin the season outside the AP Top 10 for the first time since 2008. Despite suffering a crushing 35-3 defeat to eventual national champion Indiana in last season’s College Football Playoff quarterfinals, Steele remains confident that Kalen DeBoer’s squad possesses enough defensive talent and offensive potential to return to championship contention.
BYU earned the No. 2 spot on Steele’s surprise contenders list. The analyst believes this year’s Cougars roster is the strongest Kalani Sitake has coached, pointing to sophomore quarterback Bear Bachmeier, star running back LJ Martin, an experienced offensive line and what he described as a potentially dominant defense. Steele believes BYU has enough talent to challenge difficult opponents including TCU, Utah and Notre Dame.
Oklahoma followed at No. 3 after exceeding expectations a year ago. The Sooners finished 10-2 in 2025 and hosted a first-round College Football Playoff game as the No. 8 seed. Steele expects another strong campaign behind senior quarterback John Mateer, who returns healthy and enters the season as a possible Heisman Trophy contender despite Oklahoma facing one of the nation’s toughest road schedules.
USC checked in at No. 4 as Steele predicted Lincoln Riley’s Trojans are finally positioned for a breakthrough season. Quarterback Jayden Maiava headlines an experienced offense that also features running backs King Miller and Waymond Jordan behind a veteran offensive line. Steele also praised USC’s improved defense and favorable home schedule, noting the Trojans host Ohio State, Oregon and Washington.
Utah rounded out Steele’s top five surprise contenders despite entering a new era under head coach Morgan Scalley following Kyle Whittingham’s departure. Steele highlighted returning quarterbacks Devon Dampier and Bryd Ficklin along with nearly 1,000-yard rusher Wayshawn Parker, believing the Utes remain one of the Big 12’s strongest contenders.
The remainder of Steele’s surprise Playoff rankings includes SMU at No. 6, Clemson at No. 7, Louisville at No. 8, Iowa at No. 9, Houston at No. 10, Tennessee at No. 11 and TCU at No. 12. Pittsburgh was listed as Steele’s longshot team capable of making unexpected noise during the season.
For Iowa fans, the recognition carries extra significance. The Hawkeyes have consistently been viewed as one of college football’s toughest and most disciplined programs under longtime head coach Kirk Ferentz. While they may not generate the same preseason headlines as powerhouse programs from the SEC or Big Ten, Steele’s projection suggests Iowa has the ingredients needed to challenge for one of the expanded College Football Playoff spots.
The expanded Playoff format has created new opportunities for programs capable of putting together consistent winning seasons, and Iowa has repeatedly shown it can compete against elite competition when its defense and running game are operating at their best. If the Hawkeyes can pair their trademark physical style with improved offensive production, they could become one of the season’s most dangerous teams.
Although preseason predictions always come with uncertainty, Phil Steele’s annual preview has earned a reputation for identifying teams that outperform expectations. His decision to include Iowa among the nation’s top surprise contenders will undoubtedly fuel excitement in Iowa City as anticipation builds toward the Aug. 29 opening weekend.
Whether the Hawkeyes ultimately validate Steele’s confidence remains to be seen, but one thing is already clear: Iowa has officially entered the national College Football Playoff conversation before a single snap of the 2026 season has been played.
