Iowa Quietly Cracks Top 25 — But One Decision Could Change Everything
Something is brewing in Iowa City and not everyone saw it coming.
While most programs are scrambling to rebuild in the chaos of the transfer portal, the Iowa Hawkeyes men’s basketball are doing something rare: holding steady. That stability has already turned heads, with early projections placing Iowa at No. 21 in way-too-early rankings for the 2026–27 season.
It’s not just hype. It’s a reflection of what’s coming back.
Six of Iowa’s top eight scorers are expected to return, including Alvaro Folgueiras, Cooper Koch, Cam Manyawu, Kael Combs, Tate Sage, and Isaia Howard. That core group powered the Hawkeyes to a 24–13 record last season and more importantly, an eye-opening run to the Elite Eight of the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
For a program navigating modern college basketball’s constant roster turnover, that kind of continuity isn’t just valuable it’s dangerous.
A Foundation Built on Experience
Last season wasn’t just successful it was defining.
Iowa’s 24-win campaign didn’t come easy. It was built on consistent scoring, balanced rotations, and players who understood their roles. By the time March arrived, that chemistry translated into one of the tournament’s most compelling runs.
The Elite Eight appearance wasn’t a fluke. It was the result of a roster that matured together over the course of the season.
Now, imagine bringing most of that group back.
Folgueiras emerged as a centerpiece, capable of impacting the game on multiple levels. Koch added scoring punch. Manyawu and Combs provided versatility, while Sage and Howard filled critical roles that often don’t show up in headlines but win games.
That’s the kind of lineup that doesn’t need to be rebuilt it just needs to be refined.
Why Iowa Is Already Turning Heads
Early Top 25 rankings are always tricky. They’re based on projections, not guarantees. But they do reveal one thing clearly: respect.
And Iowa is getting plenty of it.
Slotting in at No. 21 isn’t about last season alone it’s about what analysts believe this team can become. Returning production is one of the most reliable indicators of future success in college basketball, and the Hawkeyes check that box in a big way.
While other programs are patching together rosters through the portal, Iowa already knows what it has.
That familiarity matters. It means faster starts, fewer growing pains, and a team that can focus on improving rather than adjusting.
Fresh Faces Add a New Dimension
Of course, standing still isn’t enough in today’s game.
That’s why Iowa is adding new talent to complement its returning core. The 2026 recruiting class brings in four-star prospect Ethan Harris and three-star recruit Jaidyn Coon two players expected to inject energy and depth into the rotation.
Harris, in particular, arrives with expectations. Four-star recruits aren’t brought in to sit they’re brought in to contribute. His development could be a key factor in how high Iowa climbs from its No. 21 starting point.
Coon adds another layer, giving the Hawkeyes additional flexibility as they shape their lineup for the season ahead.
Young talent, when paired with experienced leadership, often creates the perfect balance. That’s exactly what Iowa is aiming for.
The Transfer Portal Still Looms Large
Even with a strong returning core and incoming recruits, the job isn’t finished.
Head coach Ben McCollum is actively working the transfer portal, searching for pieces that can strengthen the roster even further. The focus is clear: frontcourt depth and additional guard support.
That urgency comes in part from the departure of Bennett Stirtz, whose exit leaves a gap that needs to be addressed.
In today’s college basketball landscape, depth isn’t optional it’s essential. Injuries, fatigue, and matchup challenges all demand a roster that can go beyond its starting five.
McCollum understands that. And with the portal still active, Iowa’s roster may not be finished evolving.
The Decision That Could Change Everything
For all the optimism surrounding Iowa, one storyline continues to hover over the program.
What will Folgueiras do?
The standout forward is currently weighing his future, with the option to return or explore opportunities in the transfer portal. It’s a decision that could dramatically alter Iowa’s outlook.
If he stays, the Hawkeyes retain one of their most impactful players a proven contributor who already fits seamlessly into the system.
If he leaves, Iowa loses a cornerstone piece and faces the challenge of replacing not just production, but presence.
There’s no overstating the importance of this decision. It’s the difference between a team with top-20 potential and one that may need to recalibrate expectations.
Year Two Under McCollum Brings Bigger Expectations
As Ben McCollum enters his second season leading the program, the expectations are rising.
Year one was about establishing identity. Year two is about building on it.
The foundation is already there: a winning record, a deep tournament run, and a roster that understands what it takes to compete at a high level.
Now, the focus shifts to consistency.
Can Iowa sustain its success over an entire season? Can it handle the pressure that comes with being ranked? Can it take the next step from Elite Eight contender to Final Four threat?
Those questions will define the months ahead.
Stability in a Chaotic Era
College basketball has changed.
The transfer portal has turned roster building into a year-round process. Teams can look completely different from one season to the next. Continuity has become rare and incredibly valuable.
That’s what makes Iowa’s situation so intriguing.
While others are rebuilding, the Hawkeyes are reloading. While others are searching for chemistry, Iowa already has it.
That doesn’t guarantee success. But it does provide a head start.
And in a sport where early-season momentum can shape everything, that head start could prove decisive.
Why This Team Feels Different
There’s something about this group that stands out.
Maybe it’s the experience. Maybe it’s the balance between returning players and new additions. Or maybe it’s the quiet confidence that comes from a team that’s already proven it can win on a big stage.
Whatever the reason, Iowa doesn’t feel like a typical No. 21 team.
It feels like a group with room to rise.
The Road Ahead
The preseason ranking is just the beginning.
From here, everything will be determined on the court game by game, possession by possession. The Big Ten schedule will test Iowa’s depth and resilience. Non-conference matchups will offer early indicators of how far this team can go.
And throughout it all, the spotlight will grow.
Because when a team returns this much talent and starts the season ranked, expectations follow.
Final Take
Iowa’s place in the early Top 25 isn’t just about what happened last season it’s about what’s possible next.
With six key scorers returning, a strong recruiting class arriving, and a coach entering his second year with a clear vision, the Hawkeyes have positioned themselves as a team to watch.
But the story isn’t finished.
The transfer portal remains active. Key decisions are still pending. And the gap between potential and reality hasn’t yet been closed.
That’s what makes this team so compelling.
They’ve done enough to earn attention. Now, they have to prove they can keep it.
