The focus is firmly on Tampa as New Year’s Eve draws near, where No. 23 Iowa will play No. 14 Vanderbilt in the 2025 ReliaQuest Bowl. Despite not being a playoff game, Kirk Ferentz and the Hawkeyes have a lot riding on this matchup. This bowl game is more than just another postseason trip for Iowa. It’s a much-needed chance to break a frustrating losing streak against elite opponents. The fact that the Hawkeyes haven’t defeated an AP Top-25 team in over four years has loomed large over the program. A win over Vanderbilt would finally end that run and provide concrete evidence that Iowa is still capable of rising to the occasion when facing top-tier opponents.
Beyond pride, momentum is at risk. In front of recruits and transfer portal prospects, this will be Iowa’s last live audition of the season. While a defeat—especially on a national stage—might leave a less positive impression, a strong performance might rekindle interest from possible additions. The stakes seem exceptionally high for a bowl game outside of the College Football Playoffs for a program that has always prioritized long-term stability. Can Iowa finish it, then? The Hawkeyes are up against it, if national experts are to be believed.
Due in large part to the presence of quarterback Diego Pavia, one of the most exciting players in college football this season, the majority of media outlets are supporting Vanderbilt. College Football News envisions a well-known Iowa script that almost succeeds but ultimately fails, predicting a close 23–20 victory for Vanderbilt. Pavia’s competitiveness and adaptability were emphasized by Pete Fiutak College Football News, who pointed out that Iowa hasn’t faced a true running quarterback this season. He characterized the game as a typical Iowa grind, with a strong defensive effort, a reliance on field position, and the hope that punt returner Kaden Wetjen would produce something exceptional. Fiutak anticipates a late push through the air from Iowa quarterback Mark Gronowski, but in the end, Pavia engineers a final drive that culminates in a walk-off field goal for the Commodores.
Adam Rittenberg of ESPN predicts a more conclusive result, selecting Vanderbilt to win 34–23. He refers to Pavia as one of the most significant players in the sport during the previous two seasons, focusing on his revolutionary influence on the Vanderbilt program. Rittenberg thinks Vanderbilt’s offense will be too much, even though he acknowledges Iowa’s No. 8-ranked scoring defense and its capacity to persevere against teams like Indiana and Oregon. A victory would put the Commodores in the top 10 and give them an unimaginable 11th victory.
Bleacher Report predicts a 27–20 outcome, favoring Vanderbilt as well. David Kenyon described the game as an intriguing matchup between Iowa’s historically strong defense and Pavia’s dual-threat skill set. He did, however, highlight Iowa’s one-dimensional offense as a major issue. Vanderbilt has demonstrated the ability to stop the run, and the Hawkeyes might find it difficult to keep up without a reliable passing attack. Kenyon anticipates that Pavia will battle for every yard and help Vanderbilt win the game.
USA TODAY Sports agreed, with five of its six experts selecting Vanderbilt. Paul Meyerberg was the only person in the country who supported Iowa and predicted a Hawkeyes victory.
Fox Sports predicts one of the most dramatic results, predicting a thrilling 27–26 victory for Vanderbilt. Additionally, Sports Illustrated predicted that the Commodores would cover the -4.5 point spread. Vanderbilt’s top-10 scoring offense, which averages 39.2 points per game, and its capacity to stop the run were mentioned by SI. Although Vanderbilt’s pass defense hasn’t been a reliable asset for the Hawkeyes, Iowa might be able to test it. SI believes the Commodores can easily win by a touchdown or more because Vanderbilt’s passing attack is thought to be far more dependable.
The story is obvious as kickoff draws near: Iowa is the underdog but has a lot to gain. Changing national perception, gaining offseason momentum, and breaking the ranked-opponent drought are all at stake. Few games this season will have greater emotional and program-defining significance, but it remains to be seen if the Hawkeyes can surpass expectations on New Year’s Eve.
