One of the most well-known Big Ten customs Iowa and Nebraska competing for the Heroes Trophy comes with the final week of the college football regular season. However, this year is unique. An era is coming to an end with this Black Friday showdown. Next season, the rivalry won’t resume its customary post-Thanksgiving time slot for the first time in over ten years. Rather, the Hawkeyes and Cornhuskers will play each other in Week 5 of the 2026 season, which will increase the significance of the winner this year. The winner will receive hardware as well as long-lasting bragging rights.
This one won’t be easily decided, if previous matchups are any indication. Nebraska and Iowa have an amazing tendency to drag each other into brutal, intense football games. One possession has determined the outcome of seven consecutive meetings. In four of them, the final score was three points or less. Additionally, Iowa has won six of those seven close games and nine of the previous ten overall against the Huskers, consistently finding itself on the winning side of the score during all those nail-biters. This rivalry seems to close every gap and make every error a pivotal moment, regardless of where each team is in the standings.
The emotional stakes only heighten the intensity this time. Iowa just finished a thrilling Senior Day comeback victory, the kind of emotional boost that can either fuel a late-season surge or deplete a team prior to a rivalry match. During one of the most significant games of the year, Nebraska, on the other hand, has the unique opportunity to celebrate its own Senior Day at home. Every indication points to another intense push-and-pull game in which both teams are aware of each other’s goals but are unable to completely prevent them.
National analysts are offering their final predictions for the winner of the Heroes Trophy in its Black Friday farewell while all of that is going on in the background.
According to College Football News, Iowa will win 24–16. Like many previous matchups, this one is seen by the staff as being close, physical, and decided in the closing seconds. Pete Fiutak wrote, “This has to be another thriller, right?,” which sums it up perfectly. It’s what these two do. He identifies TJ Lateef, a freshman quarterback for Nebraska, as a possible stabilizing factor—someone who doesn’t have to be exceptional, just reliable.
The Huskers should stay within striking distance as long as Lateef can make mid-range throws and keep the offense going. In the end, though, Fiutak thinks Iowa’s defense will tighten in the second half. He sees the Hawkeyes relying on their tried-and-true formula of ball control, suffocating defense, and a methodical offensive strategy that gradually constricts opponents rather than overwhelms them. For an Iowa team that seems to thrive in late-game chaos, he even teases another thrilling conclusion.
Bleacher Report is even more optimistic about Iowa, predicting a Hawkeye victory of 24–13. Given the history of close finishes between these two programs, that margin may raise some eyebrows, but Bleacher Report thinks Iowa’s defensive edge, physicality, and consistency will outweigh Nebraska’s home-field energy. Although a double-digit victory in this rivalry would be uncommon, the analysts there appear to believe Iowa is on the verge of doing just that.
What does that mean for us going into Friday? Toss-up territory, particularly in light of the emotional fluctuations both teams have gone through. In addition to the extra energy that always comes with the final home game, Nebraska has the crowd advantage and the incentive of sending its seniors off with a victory. Conversely, Iowa has the assurance that they have consistently won these kinds of games, even in situations where the offense falters or the margins are extremely narrow. That history is important, especially in competitive environments where belief is frequently just as important as skill.
Fans should anticipate momentum swings, defensive stands during crucial moments, and a fourth quarter in which no one in the stadium feels at all at ease if this final Black Friday matchup lives up to the previous ten meetings. The strategy for Iowa is straightforward: utilize short fields, put Lateef in awkward situations, and rely on defense. Nebraska’s goal is to change the course of events by protecting the ball, completing drives, and ultimately dealing the decisive blow that they have failed to deliver in numerous recent encounters.
In any case, it seems like another dramatic chapter is in store for this one. With the trophy in hand, the winner will, appropriately, have the satisfaction of knowing that they have completed one tradition and begun the next.
