The Oregon Indiana CFP matchup may feature two national contenders fighting for a championship berth, but from Iowa football’s perspective, it feels deeply personal. The Hawkeyes came closer than anyone this season to knocking off both teams, pushing each to the brink and exposing cracks that now shape how this College Football Playoff showdown could unfold.
From the outside, Iowa’s season might look like another year of narrow losses and what-ifs. Look closer, though, and you’ll find a team that served as the ultimate measuring stick for two playoff heavyweights. Indiana and Oregon survived Iowa but barely and those battles matter heading into this high-stakes clash.
Iowa’s defense didn’t just compete with elite offenses. It controlled them for long stretches. And that context makes this CFP matchup far more intriguing than the rankings suggest.
Oregon Indiana CFP: What Iowa’s Near-Upsets Revealed
The Oregon Indiana CFP conversation starts with how close Iowa came to rewriting the playoff picture entirely.
Against Indiana, the Hawkeyes had the game tied 13–13 late and intercepted Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza, setting up a golden opportunity deep in Hoosier territory. Then everything unraveled. Quarterback Mark Gronowski exited with a knee injury, Iowa failed to convert a critical first down, and a missed field goal sealed their fate. Indiana escaped 20–15, despite being held to its second-lowest scoring output of the season.
That wasn’t a fluke. Iowa’s defense rattled Mendoza, forced mistakes, and dictated tempo. It showed that Indiana, for all its firepower, can be pushed into uncomfortable situations when pressure ramps up.
The Oregon game told a similar story just in a different setting. In a rain-soaked Kinnick Stadium, Iowa engineered a stunning 12-play, 93-yard drive to grab a late lead. Oregon quarterback Dante Moore, unfazed by the weather or the moment, delivered a perfect strike to Malik Benson to set up the game-winning field goal. Oregon escaped 18–16.
That game marked the only time all season the Ducks were held below 20 points.
Why This Rematch Feels Different
Indiana and Oregon already met once this year, and that result still echoes. The Hoosiers marched into Autzen Stadium and stunned the Ducks 30–20, a moment that made the nation realize Indiana wasn’t just a feel-good story it was for real.
Now, with a national title game spot on the line, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
Oregon has looked like a different team in the playoff, bulldozing James Madison and shutting out Texas Tech 23–0. Indiana, meanwhile, obliterated Alabama 38–3, one of the most jaw-dropping results of the postseason. Both teams are rolling, and something has to give.
Matchup Keys Iowa Exposed
Iowa showed a clear blueprint against Indiana: pressure Mendoza relentlessly. Blitzes rattled him, disrupted timing, and limited explosive plays. Expect Oregon to borrow that approach and dare Indiana to win consistently on the ground.
The Hoosiers can respond, though. Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black form a physical backfield duo capable of carrying the load if necessary.
For Oregon, the challenge lies in balance. The Ducks’ running game hasn’t consistently punished Indiana defenses this season, which puts even more pressure on Dante Moore to deliver another star performance. Iowa proved Moore can handle it but asking him to do everything again isn’t ideal.
Still, Dan Lanning thrives in moments like this. His teams are disciplined, physical, and emotionally ready. Oregon won’t be surprised by Indiana’s toughness.
Prediction and Final Outlook
This game won’t be flashy. It’ll be physical. A fist fight from kickoff to final whistle.
Indiana’s ability to survive road tests at both Iowa and Oregon earlier this season gives the Hoosiers a slight edge. They’ve already proven they can win ugly in hostile environments.
Prediction: Indiana 28, Oregon 21
From Iowa’s vantage point, the takeaway is clear: the Hawkeyes didn’t just play CFP teams they helped define them. And now, the lessons learned against black-and-gold defenses may decide who plays for a national championship.
