In Tampa, Florida, college football’s bowl season is in full swing as the year draws to a close on New Year’s Eve. The Iowa Hawkeyes will finally put on their pads for one of the most exciting postseason games a ReliaQuest Bowl matchup against the Vanderbilt Commodores at Raymond James Stadium after more than a month away from action.
Iowa, a team that seems to live in the postseason under Kirk Ferentz, goes into the bowl with an 8–4 record. But Vanderbilt has a lot more momentum. With a 10-2 record, the Commodores are in the midst of what may prove to be the greatest season in program history. This matchup is intriguing just based on the contrast between Vanderbilt, a team that has relied heavily on offensive firepower throughout the season, and steady, defense-first Iowa.
Vanderbilt began as a four-point favorite, according to DraftKings odds released on December 30. That makes sense on paper. With an average of just under 40 points per game, the Commodores have been among the nation’s most effective offensive teams. Diego Pavia, a quarterback and Heisman finalist who has been outstanding all season, is largely responsible for that success. Pavia has rushed for an additional 826 yards, thrown for 3,192 yards, and scored 36 touchdowns overall. He is the type of dual-threat quarterback who, if he breaks contain, can cause problems for even disciplined defenses.
Nevertheless, Iowa’s defense is exceptional in addition to being disciplined. The Hawkeyes, who only give up 15.2 points per game, have once again established themselves as a team known for their oppressive defense. Their secondary has quietly been outstanding, allowing completions on just 56.9% of passes, and they have been especially stingy against the run, limiting opponents to 3.5 yards per carry. The formula is rarely altered for Iowa. Keep gaps under control, make good tackles, steer clear of errors, and compel opponents to make long, error-free drives.
Vanderbilt will do everything in its power to test that formula. The Commodores rumble to almost six yards per carry by averaging 283 passing yards per game and accumulating an additional 186 yards on the ground. This isn’t a Vanderbilt offense at full strength, though. Eli Stowers, a major red-zone weapon and one of Pavia’s most dependable targets, has opted out. That absence is crucial when facing an Iowa defense that enjoys taking away your strengths.
To win on the outside, expect Iowa to put up a fight against Vanderbilt. Keeping Pavia in the pocket, where he is still dangerous but far less explosive than when he is freelancing, will be the Hawkeyes’ top priority. The Hawkeyes defense has a genuine opportunity to control the game’s tempo if Iowa can restrict scramble drills and force Vanderbilt into clear passing downs.
Conversely, this isn’t the Iowa offense that supporters used to complain about. The Hawkeyes are more proficient through the air than they have been in recent years, but balance and ball control are still highly valued. With a completion rate above 66% and more than 250 passing yards per game, Vanderbilt’s defense has been weak against the pass. Mark Gronowski, the quarterback for Iowa, can now make plays.
Tim Lester, the offensive coordinator, has had a full month to study the playbook. Additionally, this is Gronowski’s last game as a college student, which heightens the sense of urgency and emotion. Motivation is often the deciding factor in bowl games, and Iowa should be highly motivated to send its quarterback out on a high note. It might seem impossible to score enough to keep up with Vanderbilt if this were an Iowa team from a few years ago. However, this version is capable of trading blows. Although the defense might not be able to stop Vanderbilt entirely, it might be sufficient to slow the Commodores and force a few turnovers. Iowa has a track record of winning tough, close games, and this one is set up similarly.
The forecast points to a close finish. The offense takes advantage of a few crucial opportunities, Iowa’s defense does just enough to frustrate Vanderbilt, and the Hawkeyes finish the season strong.
Prediction: Iowa 24, Vanderbilt 21
Best Bet: Iowa +4
The game will air on ESPN, with kickoff scheduled for 11 a.m. CT. Additionally, fans can watch the game live on Fubo. Bowl season is always unpredictable, but this ReliaQuest Bowl has everything you need for a classic Iowa performance tough defense, timely offense, and a tense fourth quarter.
