Iowa is firmly back in the conversation in ESPN’s most recent bracketology outlook for the 2026 women’s NCAA Tournament. ESPN’s analysts are beginning to believe that Iowa might be more dangerous than most people realize after observing the Hawkeyes’ offseason moves, roster turnover, and returning core.
Here’s a closer look at how things are going and what challenges this program still faces. Projected Seed and Region for Iowa Charlie Creme, an ESPN bracketologist, currently projects Iowa as the fifth seed in Region 1 (Fort Worth), according to Sports Illustrated.
The Hawkeyes would play Belmont in the first round and possibly Maryland in the second round, according to this projection. Despite not being ranked among the elite powerhouses, Iowa is not far away, which makes it an intriguing lure. The No. 5 seed conveys respect as well as the conviction that, under the right circumstances, Iowa can contend. What the Hawkeyes Are Doing Well Despite roster changes and the post-Caitlin Clark era, ESPN appears optimistic about Iowa for a number of reasons.
Astute additions: Chazadi “Chit Chat” Wright, a solid transfer from Georgia Tech, was signed by the Hawkeyes and should contribute to backcourt stability and veteran leadership. Talented newcomers and freshmen: According to ESPN, their outlook has been energized by Iowa’s freshman recruiting class and portal activity. Big-game pedigree: Iowa demonstrated its ability to compete nationally even during a transitional period. That history tends to matter in bracketology discussions and doesn’t vanish overnight.
According to Creme and others, Iowa’s ability to compete with elite teams and defeat formidable opponents with high NET rankings keeps them in the running to be “up-seeded” or at the very least, not seeded too low. What is preventing them from moving forward? ESPN isn’t indicating that Iowa will be the overwhelming favorite, though.
The optimism is tempered by several limiting factors: Early in the season, there was an inconsistent stretch: Even if they finish strongly, Iowa’s overall profile suffers from difficulties in the middle of the Big Ten slate, as has been mentioned in previous bracketology discussions.
Concerns about roster continuity: Cohesion and chemistry will be crucial as important players leave and new ones join. Although there are high expectations, Iowa must demonstrate that they are functioning as a team rather than a collection. Strong competition both nationally and in the Big Ten: Despite Iowa’s strong performance, many of its conference rivals are also expected to submit NCAA bids. The selection/balance criteria (such as avoiding early intra-conference matchups) can be detrimental, but the margin for error is minimal.
Things to Keep an Eye on A number of factors must align if Iowa hopes to reach or surpass ESPN’s predictions: Win the Big Ten championship games on a regular basis. Create a go-to identity that endures roster turnover, particularly in defense. Bracketology penalizes slippage, so avoid bad losses.
In actuality, this bracket projection gives hope but makes no guarantees. This season, ESPN expects Iowa to compete for seeding, avoid the “bubble” stress, and possibly even upset the top divisions if they land good matchups. And that’s thrilling for fans. Despite not being the presumptive number one seed, Iowa is still in the running for the fifth seed. Not only is a strong March run feasible, it seems likely.
