There’s a reason Iowa football keeps finding its way into the conversation long after preseason predictions have written the Hawkeyes off. Under Kirk Ferentz, Iowa has built a reputation for turning modest expectations into meaningful results, and a new preseason ranking of the nation’s most underrated programs has put that trend firmly back in the spotlight.
According to a recent analysis by On3’s Brett McMurphy, Iowa ranks No. 4 among college football’s most underrated teams since 2014. Only Northwestern sits between Iowa and the top of the list, while Boise State follows closely behind. BYU claimed the No. 1 spot after beginning the past two seasons unranked and eventually finishing No. 13 in 2024 and No. 11 in 2025.
For Iowa, the distinction isn’t based on one surprising season. It reflects a pattern that has followed the Hawkeyes for more than a decade. Iowa has avoided a losing season since 2012, and its ability to outperform preseason expectations has become one of the program’s most recognizable characteristics.
Iowa Has Made a Habit of Beating Expectations
The numbers help explain why the Hawkeyes landed so high on McMurphy’s list. Iowa has appeared in the preseason AP Top 25 six times since 2014, and the program finished higher than its preseason position in half of those seasons.
That trend stretches even further when Ferentz’s entire tenure is considered. Iowa has been ranked in the preseason AP Top 25 11 times under Ferentz, yet the Hawkeyes have repeatedly managed to finish the year looking stronger than many preseason projections suggested.
That’s hardly an accident.
Ferentz has spent years building Iowa around development, physical football and consistency rather than chasing the flashiest offseason headlines. The result has been a program that regularly enters the season without enormous national hype but becomes increasingly difficult to ignore once conference play begins.
The Hawkeyes also have five bowl victories during the recent stretch highlighted by the report, with the most recent coming against Vanderbilt in the 2025 ReliaQuest Bowl. Iowa’s 34-27 victory gave the program another postseason win and provided another example of its ability to finish a season on a positive note.
No. 22 Iowa Has Another Chance to Prove the Point
The interesting part is that Iowa isn’t entering the 2026 season completely overlooked. The Hawkeyes landed at No. 22 in the AP preseason poll, giving them a national ranking to defend — and potentially improve.
But the schedule isn’t going to make that easy.
Iowa’s Big Ten campaign opens with a brutal three-game stretch against Michigan, Ohio State and Washington. Those games could determine whether the Hawkeyes emerge as a legitimate College Football Playoff contender or spend the rest of the season trying to recover from an early setback.
That doesn’t mean the season falls apart if Iowa drops a game or two early. The back half of the schedule is considerably more manageable, although rivalry games against Minnesota and Wisconsin will still demand attention.
Nebraska is another game Iowa can’t overlook. The annual Heroes Game moves to Iowa City this season, and the Hawkeyes have enjoyed considerable success against the Cornhuskers in recent years.
The CFP Conversation Could Come Down to September
If Iowa manages to win at least one of those first three major Big Ten tests, the entire outlook could change.
A strong opening against Michigan, Ohio State or Washington would give the Hawkeyes an early signature victory and could provide the momentum needed to navigate the rest of the schedule. With the more favorable portion of the calendar arriving later, a 10-2 finish isn’t difficult to imagine if Iowa handles the games it’s expected to win.
Even a 9-3 record could keep Iowa in the national conversation, but the margin for error would become much smaller if the Hawkeyes stumble through the opening stretch.
That’s ultimately what makes the preseason No. 22 ranking so intriguing. Iowa isn’t being asked to prove it belongs among college football’s elite from the start it simply has to do what it has repeatedly done under Ferentz: outperform expectations when the games matter most.
The Hawkeyes already have the history. Now they have another opportunity to turn an “underrated” label into a warning for everyone else.
And if Iowa once again finishes the season considerably higher than where it started, nobody should be surprised. At this point, that’s becoming part of the Hawkeye formula.
